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Im sry if u find some grammatical errors, english is not my mother language. Let me know and i will fix it. First of all, look for at least half an hour without interruptions to read this manual. This is the system that has created trading professionals. He has done it and today he continues doing it, as it happened with me. It is not a system written in any forum, in fact I believe that it has been the first to collect all the ideas and create a structure to follow to carry them out, but these same ideas and procedures have been the ones that the winning traders have used during decades and will continue to use, since they are based on completely objective and real foundations. Let's go to it: Hi all. It is known that the observation time makes the patterns elucidate, and after some time in the forum and throughout this trading world I have found many patterns in the responses of the people, I have reasoned about them, and I have realized their failures, why they fail to be profitable. There are people who have put effort into this. Not all, but there are people who have really read a lot, studied a lot, learned a lot and tried a lot, and even then they are not able to achieve stable profitability. The question is: Is there enough in that effort? Is there a specific moment in the line of learning where you start to be profitable? The question is, logically. There are traders that generate constant profitability. Hedge funds, investment firms ... and the difference is in areas where people for some reason do not want to invest time. Why are there more messages in the strategy forums than in the psychology, journals and fundamental analysis together? As human beings, our brain is programmed to look for quick positive responses. In nature, the brain does not understand the concept of long-term investment. There is only a short-term investment made from the difference between what we think will cost us something and what we think it will contribute. If we think that it will cost us more than it can give us, we simply do not feel motivated. It is a simple mechanism. The market plays with these mechanisms. There are more scalpers created from the search for that positive emotion than from the search for a scalping system. In short, we are not programmed to operate, and there lies the fact that only a huge minority of operators are profitable. Among others, I have observed several patterns of behavior that make a trader fail, and they are: - Search for immediate pleasure: The trader wants to feel that he has won on the one hand, and on the other he wants to avoid the feeling of loss. Following this there are many traders who place a very low take profit and a very high stop loss. This is not bad if the probabilities have been reviewed before, the mathematical factor of hope, the relation with the drawdown .. but in the majority of the cases absolutely nothing of statistics is known. There is only that need to win. They win, they win, they win, until one day the odds do their job and the stop loss is touched, returning the account to its origins or leaving it with less money than it started. This does not work. - Search for immediate wealth: Again it is something immediate. People want good emotions, and we want them already. The vast majority of traders approach this world with fantasies of wealth, women and expensive cars, but do not visualize hard work, the sickly hard work behind all this. From there underlie behaviors like eternally looking for new robots or expert advisors that promise a lot of money, or new systems. The type of trader that has this integrated pattern is characterized by doing nothing more than that. Spend the day looking for new strategies Of course he never manages to earn constant money. - Think that trading is easy: Trading is not easy, it is simple. Why? Because when you get the wisdom and experience necessary to find yourself in a state of superior knowledge about the market and effectively make money, it is very simple; you just have to apply the same equation again and again. However, it is not easy to reach this equation. This equation includes variables such as risk understanding, mathematics, certain characteristics in the personality that must be assimilated little by little, intelligence, a lot of experience .. This is not easy. This is a business, and in fact it is one of the most difficult businesses in the world. It may seem simple to see a series of candles on a screen or perhaps a line, or any type of graphic, but it is not. Behind the screen there are hundreds of thousands of very intelligent professionals, very disciplined, very educated, very ... This business is the most profitable in the world if you know how to carry, since it is based on the concept of compound interest, but it is also one of the most difficult. And I repeat. It's a business, not a game. I think you'll never hear a lawyer say to his boss: "We're going to focus all our time on finding a strategy that ALWAYS makes us win a trial, ALWAYS." What does it sound ridiculous? It sounds to me just as ridiculous for trading. But you are not to blame, you have been subconsciously deceived through the advertising brokers and your own internal desires, to think that this is something easy. - Lack of discipline: Trading is not something you can do 10 minutes on Monday and 6 on Thursday. This is not a game, and until you get a regular schedule you can not start earning money. There are people who open a graph one day for 5 minutes, then return to their normal life and then one week returns to look at it for other minutes. Trading should not be treated as a hobby. If you want to win "some money" I advise you not even to get in, because you will end up losing something or a lot of money. You have to think if you really want trading to be part of your life. It's like when you meet a girl and you want to get married. Do you really want to get into this with all the consequences? Because otherwise it will not work. Visualize the hard work behind this. Candle nights, frustrations, several hundred dollars lost (at the beginning) .. enter the world of trading with a really deep reason, if you lose a time and money that no one will return, and both things are finite! - Know something and pretend to know everything: Making money in the markets is not based on painting the graph as a child a paper with crayon wax and pretend to make money. It is not based on drawing lines or circles, or squares. It is based on understanding the operation of all these tools, the background of the why of the tools of trading. A trend line only marks the cycle of a wave within a longer time frame, within a longer time frame, and so on indefinitely. In turn, this wave is divided into waves with a specific behavior, divided into smaller waves and Etcetera, and understanding that dynamic is fundamental to winning. It is not the fact of drawing a line. That can be done by an 8 year old boy. It is the fact of UNDERSTANDING why. There are traders who read two technical analysis books and a delta analysis book and believe that they are professionals, but do they really understand the behavior of the market? The answer is in their portfolios. After this explanation that only 10% will have read, I will try to detail step by step something that is 90% yearning, and that will have quickly turned the scroll of your mouse to find the solution to all your problems while supporting the beer in a book of " become rich ", rotten by lack of use. These steps must be carried out one by one, starting with the first, fulfilling it, moving on to the second, successively and growing. If steps are taken for granted, or not fully met, it simply will not work. I know this will happen and the person who did it will think "Bah, this does not work." and you will return to your top strategy search routine. That said, let start: 1º Create a REAL account with 50 dollars approximately: _ Forget the demo accounts. They are a utopia, they do not work. There is infinite liquidity, without emotions and without slipagge. These things will change when we enter the real market, and the most experienced person in the world will notice a sharp drop in their profitability when it happens to real accounts. And not only using a demo account has disadvantages, but using a real one has advantages. We will have a real slipagge with real liquidity. Real requotes and more. The most important: We will work our emotions at the same time. Because yes, we will lose or win a couple of cents, but that has a subconscious impact of loss. This means that we will begin to expand our comfort zone from the start. Using a demo account is simply a disadvantage. 2º Buy a newspaper in the stationery or in Chinese (optional), or write one online or in Word: A newspaper will be of GREAT help. You can not imagine, for those of you who do not have one, how a newspaper can exponentiate our learning curve. It is simply absurd not to have a diary. It's like taking a ticket of 5 instead of one of 100. In this diary we will write down observations that we make about the operations that we will carry out in points that I will explain later of this same manual. We will divide the newspaper into 2 parts:
1 part: The operation itself. We will write the reasons for each operation. The why we have done it.
2 part: How we feel. We will unburden ourselves without explaining how we feel, what our intuition tells us about that particular operation and so on.
How to use: We will read the newspaper once a week, thinking about the emotions we felt each day and in what situations, and the reasons. Soon, we will begin to realize that we have certain patterns in the way we feel and operate, and we will have the ability to change them. We can also learn from mistakes that we make, and keep them always in a diary. 3º Look for a strategy that has the following characteristics:
Make it SIMPLE. Nothing of 4 or more indicators or the colors of the gay flag drawn on the graph based on 1000 lines. Why? Because there is always an initial enthusiasm and maybe we can follow a complex strategy for a week, but burned that motivation, saturates us and we will leave it aside.
Therefore, the strategy must be simple. If we use metatrader, the default indicators work. No macd's no-lag and similar tools. That does not lead anywhere. And if you do not believe it, I'll tell you that in all areas of life comes marketing. In addition to trading towards MMA and now I do powerlifts, and there are 1000 exercises to do. However, the classics are still working and work very well. It seems that sellers of strange sports equipment do not share the same opinion, that the only thing they want is to sell! 4º Understand the strategy:
We must gut each process of the strategy and reason about it. What does this indicator do? What does this process? Why this and not another? Why this exit ?. Some strategies will be based on unspecified outputs. This does not suppose any problem because as we get experience in that specific strategy, we will remember situations that have occurred, we will see situations that are repeated (patterns) and we will be able to find better starts and entrances. Everything is in our hands.
5° Collect essential statistical information:
This part is FUNDAMENTAL, and no operator can have as much security in itself when operating as if it uses a strategy that has at least positive mathematical hope and an acceptable drawdown.
Step 1: To carry out this collection of information you need to test the strategy for at least 100 signals. Yes, 100 signals.
Assuming it is an intraday strategy and we do an operation per day, it will take us 100 days (3 months and 10 days approx) to carry out the study. Logically these figures can change depending on the number of operations that we make up to date with the strategy. I have no doubt that after reading this manual we will go for a quick strategy of scalpers, with 100 signals every 10 minutes where the seller comes out with a big smile in his promotional video. I personally recommend a system of maximum 2 daily operations to start, but this point is personal. Is it a long time? Go! It turns out that a college student of average intelligence takes 6 years to finish a career. It takes 6 years just to train, and there are even more races. This does not guarantee any profitability, and in any case most of Sometimes it will get a static return and not based on compound interest. I can never aspire to more. The market offers compound profitability, there will be no bosses, nor schedules that we do not impose. We will always have work, and we can earn a lot more money than most people with careers or masters. Is it a long time? I do not think so. As I was saying, we will test the strategy 100 times with our REAL account that we created in step 1. Did you decide to use a demo account? Better look for another manual; This has to be something serious. They are 100 dollars and will be the best investment of all in your career as a trader.
Step 2: Once with the report of the 100 strategies in hand, we will collect the following information:
How many times have we won and how many lost. Afterwards, we will find the percentage of correct answers.
How much have we won and how much have we lost? Afterwards, we will find the average profit and the average loss.
Step 3: With this information we will complete the mathematical hope formula:
(1 + average profit / average loss) * (percentage of correct answers / 100) -1 Example:
Of the 100 operations there are 50 winners and 50 losers, then the success rate is 50%.
Our average profit is 20 dollars and our average loss is 10 dollars.
Filling the formula: (1 + 20/10) * (50/100) -1 (1 + 2) * (0,5) -1 3 * 0.5 - 1 1,5 - 1 = 0,5 In this example the mathematical expectation is 0.5. It is POSITIVE, because it is greater than 0. From 0, we will know that this strategy will make us earn money over time ALWAYS we respect the strategy. If after a few days we modify it, then we will have to find this equation again with another 100 different operations. Easy? A result of "0" would mean that this strategy does not win or lose, but in the long run we would LOSE due to the spread and other random factors. You have to try to find a strategy that, once this study is done, the result of your mathematical hope is greater than 0.2 as MINIMUM. Finding this formula will also give a curious fact. The greater the take profit in relation to the stop loss, as a general rule more positive will be our mathematical hope. This has given many pages of discursiones about whether to place take profit> stop loss or vice versa. If our stop was larger than the take profit, then the other ratio (% earned /% lost) should be yes or yes positive. But this is just curiosities. let's keep going:
6° Expand our comfort zone:
We will not be able to work with operations of 10 million dollars overnight, but we can progressively condition ourselves to that path. Assuming all of the above, and with a real account, some experience in the 3 months of information gathering and a positive mathematical hope, we are ready to operate in real with some consistency. But how to carry it out? The comfort zone is the psychological limits we have before feeling fear or emotional tension. When we get into a fight, we have left our comfort zone and we feel tension, unless we have a psychopathic disorder. Every time we lean out onto a 300-meter balcony from a skyscraper, we move away from the comfort zone. Every time we speak to a depampanante woman, we move away from our comfort zone. Our brain creates a comfort zone to differentiate what we usually do and is not substantially dangerous, from the unknown and potentially dangerous to our survival or reproduction. And whenever the brain interprets that these two aspects are in danger, we will feel negative emotions like fear, disgust, loneliness, fury, etcetera. This topic is much more profound and you would have to read several volumes of evolutionism to understand the why of each thing. The only thing that interests us here is the "what", and the one, that is, that there is a certain comfort zone that must be expanded without any problems. With trading, exactly the same thing happens. The forex market is a virtual environment in which we lose or gain things, but our brain does not differentiate between reality and what is not, it only attends to stimuli of a certain type. We can lose food in the middle of the forest or also a crude oil operation. Our goal is to condition our subconscious so that it is progressively accepting lost and small benefits, and as time goes by, bigger. The exercise to achieve this is the following:
We will operate on that account of 100 dollars with our mathematically positive strategy for 3 more months.
After these three months, our account should have benefits, because of the mathematically positive strategy.
We will enter 200 dollars more and we will operate a month more raising the lots according to our risk management (I do not advise that the risk is greater than 2%)
At this point, I know how hard it is to resign myself to impatience, but follow those times and do not skip it even if you feel safe, but you will fail, it's simple. Let's keep going:
After that month, we will raise our capital again with a new income. This time we will enter 1000 dollars (save if you do not have 1000 dollars loose, you will recover later on, do you want to make money, enter 1000 dollars.
We will test the operation one month with this new injection. We probably notice difficulties. More blockages, more euphoria when winning ... how will we know when to move on to the next entry? When we do not feel ANYTHING or at most something very shallow, when win or lose If observing the wall and operating is for you the same from an emotional point of view, it is time to enter more money.
We will follow this procedure until we have a basic account of 21000 dollars. The amounts to be paid will depend on our ability to not feel emotions, a capacity that will be taking over time.
We will raise capital until we feel that we block too much. In that case we will drawdown to a more acceptable amount, and we will continue at that level until get discipline and lack of reactivity at that level. Later, we will go up.
If we want to earn more money, we will continue entering and entering. Always following the conditioning scheme of 1 month.
Why a month? A study conducted in the United States revealed that the subconscious needs an average of 28 days to create new habits or eliminate old habits. Emotional reactions are part of the habits. If we maintain some pressure of any emotion during the opportune time, in this case 28 days, will create tolerance and the subconscious will need a more intense version of the stimulus to activate. AND THAT'S ALL! Follow these steps and you will triumph. Here is the golden chalice, the tomb of Jesus or whatever you want to call it. There is no more mystery in the world of trading. This system will accompany you during the next year, year and a half. It's the one I used and it WORKS. Once done, you will have a very profitable system integrated into your being, since not only will it be mathematically viable, but you will also have the necessary experience to make it infinitely more profitable yet. In addition, you will have psychology fully worked on a professional level to have conditioned your subconscious gradually. Happy trading to all of u guys.-
Sorry for the wall of text, but I hope it can give confidence to other new members and maybe pointers or "you are wrong change this" from the experienced ones here. I will start by saying I am very new to Forex by all means. I know some people that sit on demo accounts for 6+ months before they even think about touching a real money account. I had my demo account for ~2 days before I realized that using a demo account led me to a lack of care in my learning or developing a strategy. No real money to lose, no real incentive to focus and practice. With that said, I have been actively trading for about 9 days, and made about 250 trades (I have been busy). I have never crept above a 0.04 lot size, and my starting balance was $300. This was all money I made from the stock market that I withdrew to "tinker" with Forex because stocks just weren't my thing. By the end of the 4th day, I was feeling very discouraged, I was down to ~$240, I was embarrassed to share that fact with my wife after I had so much excitement to start in on this hobby. By day 7, I was down to $178, and I realized that I was clueless and impulsive/impatient (see my previous thread on this sub asking for help). My problem was that I was seeing a trend, jumping in the pair to try and ride the way at the wrong time, usually using market price entries, and panicking when the pips went negative (although afterward always continuing to trend, no patience, bad entries/analysis) and I would ditch the trade for a loss or set a tight SL that didn't allow for the normal give/take nature of the trend. This is day 10, I am starting to develop a very personalized approach to how I choose my trades. I am mainly looking at the stoch, RSI, volumes, and occasionally SAR before I choose my trades. I am still very impatient, but I try to use a H1 chart for the general trend, and move to M30 to find out if it is a good entry or if I should give it 15-20 minutes to enter (stoch crosses, RSI range judgment). See the screenshot below, if the overall trend is bullish, I will wait for stoch to reach the "bottom" and cross, while RSI remains at, over or near 70, and usually using volume as a judgment of how quickly I should expect to see pips moving (this is just a guess at how volumes work, I assume higher volume = more trades, can't be too far off, just too busy to research and confirm). For this screenshot, I wouldn't enter here (RSI high, upward trend, but stoch is on a down slope, i would wait for this to reach a bottom and cross to enter). This is where I am beginning to learn patience, as well. Currently I am too nervous to ride the trend wave, and I have begun utilizing the "trailing stop" to secure profits as I learn, kind of like training wheels. The majority of my trades hit my trailing stop of 20-50 points depending on how confident I am in the trade. http://i.imgur.com/e0Imco8.png With this strategy, I have come back from my deficit of $178 and the account is currently sitting at $216. This may not seem like a lot, but 90%+ of my trades are <$1 (lot sizes usually 0.01-0.03). It has been a long climb but my success rate in the last two days has been tremendous when I follow my rules. I still make stupid impulse trades (like this morning in the McDonalds drivethru, got too excited when I saw GBPUSD climbing and jumped in at the wrong time and lost $0.06). Below are my trades over the last 2 days as I try to refine myself further and be smarter. A few big blunders but I have only been trading for 9 days so I have a ton to learn and hopefully continue to grow and incorporate techniques to make my trades more solid and gain confidence when I click that confirm button. http://i.imgur.com/cju548M.png
I'm new to this, young, and I want to start a snowball. Looking for guidance and ideas.
Hello all. tl;dr at bottom for your convenience. So, I'm young (early twenties). I work a professional job and have a very respectable income. I live in a low-cost-of-living region in Washington state. My parents were active real estate investors (my mother a former realtor, my father going over to full time land lording after retirement). Over the past year, studying investing in my spare time has become a very active hobby; I day trade forex in small amounts, buy and hold stocks (dividends + selling occasional covered calls), and have been trying to in general be very frugal and conservative (no cable TV, negotiated down all my living costs, got a roommate in to cover the mortgage) and put away a very large percentage of my income. Before I started really crunching numbers and embracing the concept of investing, I thought the best thing I could do would be to pay off my mortgage, so a lot of money got funneled that way. I bought a foreclosure two years ago (conventional, 5.25% interest), fixed it up, and now have well over 50% equity. I'm rather enamored with the idea of living on as little as possible, taking my sizable professional income, and creating a snowball of investments (re-investmenting all proceeds year after year in more investments), until I can eventually retire and take on projects that interest me in my free time, or study, or travel. I've been doing some reading and video watching and I was hoping I could bounce my ideas off of some of you more experienced buyers. I don't know how some of this will be perceived, and I imagine there are lots of young eager investors who come in here excited with silly expectations only to get shot down. So, have at me! I will first outline my situation: My biggest issue is this; I have the money, but not so much free time. I do value preserving time above all else at the moment, as a result. And maybe that's fundamentally incompatible with land lording, and maybe you'll tell me that. I'm currently intending to use property managers, realizing that'll cut in to my margins, but at least might enable me to maintain my 8-5 career while adding properties to my collection. If I ever leave my day job to do this full time, a property manager would obviously go. As to the money; I have a decent amount in savings, an even more decent amount in my stock account, and a HELOC with 40k available. I was thinking of (since I've fixed up my house) refinancing my home FHA to cash out ~40k less ~3k in closing costs, and get my interest rate to the 3.8% range. Altogether I could probably raise ~$55-60k. I have good credit. As of yesterday it was at 705; however, I just bought my second house and signed up for a half dozen credit cards (I churn; get them on promotions all on the same day, put my spending on it to get rewards, pay them off every month, call and downgrade the card to a no-fee one before the annual fee comes around. Collected about $3k in rewards this time around) in the last 90 days, so my report is full of recent inquiries that'll drop off and I'm sure it'll go back up to the previous value of 740 soon enough. So as I mentioned, I just bought my first investment property (second property). I have talked to a few members on this board in the process of doing this, so if you know who I am, please be nice and don't post my actual account name. I got it for $55,000 conventional, 20% down, $3k closing costs, fixed it up for $5k and am interviewing tenants for $850 a month. I've run the math and am expecting an annual return of over 20% of what I paid in cash after property management costs and principal/interest/insurance/taxes (counting principal as losses). I imagine my real return (with potential vacancies, repairs, bad tenants) won't be near that over the long term, however. So, I like this idea. Buy foreclosures with a conventional loan, only take the deal if I feel I can get a ~20% annual ROI (with repairs and 20% down payment figured in), and I can buy maybe two more right now while maintaining an emergency fund and 1-2 a year. This was what I was going to do. Maybe I can do more? I'm looking for ideas and options to explore. I feel like there is a huge opportunity for borrowed money at the moment because of the historic and artificially low interest rates. Leverage. Can I do better than 1-2 houses a year? I don't know the slightest thing about owner financing. One of the interviews I watched talked about finding people who can't meet their monthly payments and taking the mortgage from them. Can anyone point me towards resources about this? Can I do this, fix the house up, and then refinance to get a lower interest rate? What about hard money? The interest rates look too high, but are there perhaps any tricks to it? (Borrow hard money, buy a house, fix it up, go to a bank and get a conventional mortgage on it to pay back the borrowed hard money?) What other ways are there to get in to a house with little down so that I could pick up multiple? Or am I off my rocker? Finally; if anyone here has read Malcolm Gladwell's book, The Tipping Point, I am a stereotypical Maven. In other words, I tend to obsessively collect information about topics, almost to a fault, and love numbers. (Totally new to real estate, of course) A friend of mine is a true Connector). He's the type of person who "collects" people, and has friends and contacts in almost every field. We've had discussions about the idea of starting a business of some sort for a while, but without a clear direction. Would there be a use I could have for someone with this particular talent, that would be worth some sort of commission or cut? Perhaps if I'm going to be contacting people for owner financing deals or working with lenders to try to find these types of people? Or would it not be worth any additional cost to my margin (keeping in mind that time constraints will be my biggest limitation)? Thank you all so much for reading through my little novel and offering me any wisdom. tl;dr: I'm young, have a sizable income and low expenses to income, and could probably buy a couple properties a year with conventional financing. Is there any way to pick up properties at a faster rate than this while interest rates are so low? How would one come up with owner financing deals? Please read my other questions if you can find some time to.
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