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Comunidad de forex y traders en español
Comunidad de forex en reddit, pero en este caso en Español / Castellano. Para discutir temas relacionados a forex, ya sean brokers, estrategias de trading, clubs de traders, recomendaciones, recursos para traders y tal. También estafas de forex, más que nada. Y recomendar o NO brokers.
Broker de forex que pueda usar sin problemas en argentina?
Buenas, basicamente lo que dice el titulo, que broker puedo usar que sea facil depositar y extraer fondos? Tengo entendido que IQ Option es una de las mas sencillas y XM también pero quería tener opiniones o recomendaciones. Si se puede usar con mt4 o 5 sería un plus. Gracias!
Interesante web para ver opiniones sobre distintos brokers de forex, tienen opiones sobre FXCM, Plus500, IG Markets, y otros brokers no tan conocidos como AG Markets, CMC Markets y demás. Están bastante bien.
Forex trading is the simultaneous buying of one currency and selling of another… Read more
Before trading currencies, an investor has to understand the basic terminology of the forex market… Read more
Fundamental analysis is the study of the overall economic, financial, political… Read more
Technical analysis is the study of prices over time, with charts being the primary tool… Read more
The term ‘trend’ describes the current direction of the financial instrument… Read more
What is a Technical Indicator
Technical Indicators are a result of mathematical calculations/algorithms… Read more
As an investment, gold is the most popular of the precious metals… Read more
A market order is an order to open a buy or sell position at… Read more We complete our education centre with a breakdown of Gold Trading and details of the different Order Types. You can also review our glossary to find brief definitions of various trading and financial terms you may encounter. Once you have familiarised yourself with the information and concepts, you can open a Demo Trading Account to practice what you have learnt and build on your knowledge and understanding of how to trade successfully. Treat your demo account as you would your real account. Aprender a operar con Forex | Lernen Sie Forex zu handeln
What is Forex? Think the stock market is huge? Think again. Learn about the LARGEST financial market in the world and how to trade in it.
What Is Forex?Learn about this massively huge financial market where fiat currencies are traded.
What Is Traded In Forex?Currencies are the name of the game. Yes, you can buy and sell currencies against each other as a short-term trade, long-term investment, or something in-between.
Buying And Selling Currency PairsThe first thing that you need to know about forex trading is that currencies are traded in pairs; you can’t buy or sell a currency without another.
Know Your Forex History!If it wasn’t for the Bretton Woods System (and the great Al Gore), there would be no retail forex trading! Time to brush up on your history!
When Can You Trade Forex? Now that you know who participates in the forex market, it’s time to learn when you can trade!
Forex Trading SessionsJust because the forex market is open 24 hours a day doesn’t mean it’s always active! See how the forex market is broken up into four major trading sessions and which ones provides the most opportunities.
When Can You Trade Forex: Tokyo SessionGodzilla, Nintendo, and sushi! What’s not to like about Tokyo?!? The Tokyo session is sometimes referred to as the Asian session, which is also the session where we start fresh every day!
When Can You Trade Forex: London SessionNot only is London the home of Big Ben, David Beckham, and the Queen, but it’s also considered the forex capital of the world–raking in about 30% of all forex transactions every day!
When Can You Trade Forex: New York SessionNew York baby! The concrete jungle where forex dreams are made of! Just like Asia and Europe, the U.S. is considered one of the top financial centers in the world, so it definitely sees its fair share of action–and then some!
Types of Forex Orders“Would you like pips with that?” Okay, not that type of order, but buying and selling currencies can be just as simple with a little practice.
Demo Trade Your Way to SuccessCurrency market behavior is constantly evolving. Trade on demo first to get a lot of the rookie mistakes out of the way before risking live capital. There are no take-backs in the real market.
Forex Trading is NOT a Get-Rich-Quick SchemeWhile possible if you’re a trading genius with ice in your veins and you’re luckier than a lottery winner, building wealth through trading takes time and practice to build the skills and experience needed to be successful.
We Compare Brokers provides in-depth forex and cfd brokers for Mexico. Stockbroker, forex broker and CFD trading platform comparisons and reviews. Use our stock broker comparison tool, reviews, and extensive testing data to find the right broker for your trading. Corredores de divisas
Interactive Brokers: Brexit account migration = insurance drops from 500k USD to 20k EUR
Is anyone else concerned about this? They are migrating from UK to Hungary, Ireland or Luxembourg: https://ibkr.info/node/3515 Main reason I used IB was safety/regulation. After this migration we lose FSCS & SIPC protection, compensation will be the same as e.g. DeGiro or Trading 212 (20k EUR), for me there is no point to stay on IB any longer as I much prefer Trading 212's modern platform. What are your thoughts?
In 2018 IBKR established Interactive Brokers Luxembourg SARL (“IBLUX”) which received regulatory authorization in November 2019. In addition, we are in the process of creating two additional brokers based in the European Union: Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited (“IBIE”) and Interactive Brokers Central Europe Befektetési ZRt (“IBCE”). We expect the majority of the clients based in Western Europe will be migrated to IBIE, those in Central and Eastern Europe to IBCE and a select group of clients to IBLUX. Currently, provided they meet eligibility requirements, IBUK clients may be protected in relation to investment services under the UK Financial Services Compensation Scheme (“UK FSCS”) at an amount of up to £50,000. As IBUK clients are carried by our US broker, IBL, the securities segment of their account may be eligible for insurance by the Securities Investor Protection Corporation (“SIPC”) at an amount of up to USD 500,000. Under the EU Brokers IBLUX, IBIE and IBCE eligible claimants may be entitled to claim compensation up to a maximum of EUR 20,000.
Later update - currently for IBUK, the protection amount depends on what you are trading with:
If you trade with forex, CFDs, non-US stock index options or futures, you are protected by the FSCS, up to £85,000.
If you trade with stocks, bonds, funds or US stock index options, you are protected by the US investor protection, i.e. $500,000, with a cash limit of $250,000.
Que buen broker se puede utilizar para operar foreign exchange de manera legal en el país? Al operar en forex me toca pagar el impuesto a renta financiera verdad? Algún consejo de antemano para fondea retirar dinero de la cuenta?
Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part 3/3
Welcome to the third and final part of this chapter. Thank you all for the 100s of comments and upvotes - maybe this post will take us above 1,000 for this topic! Keep any feedback or questions coming in the replies below. Before you read this note, please start with Part I and then Part II so it hangs together and makes sense. Part III
Squeezes and other risks
Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits
Squeezes and other risks
We are going to cover three common risks that traders face: events; squeezes, asymmetric bets.
Economic releases can cause large short-term volatility. The most famous is Non Farm Payrolls, which is the most widely watched measure of US employment levels and affects the price of many instruments.On an NFP announcement currencies like EURUSD might jump (or drop) 100 pips no problem. This is fine and there are trading strategies that one may employ around this but the key thing is to be aware of these releases.You can find economic calendars all over the internet - including on this site - and you need only check if there are any major releases each day or week. For example, if you are trading off some intraday chart and scalping a few pips here and there it would be highly sensible to go into a known data release flat as it is pure coin-toss and not the reason for your trading. It only takes five minutes each day to plan for the day ahead so do not get caught out by this. Many retail traders get stopped out on such events when price volatility is at its peak.
Short squeezes bring a lot of danger and perhaps some opportunity. The story of VW and Porsche is the best short squeeze ever. Throughout these articles we've used FX examples wherever possible but in this one instance the concept (which is also highly relevant in FX) is best illustrated with an historical lesson from a different asset class. A short squeeze is when a participant ends up in a short position they are forced to cover. Especially when the rest of the market knows that this participant can be bullied into stopping out at terrible levels, provided the market can briefly drive the price into their pain zone. There's a reason for the car, don't worry Hedge funds had been shorting VW stock. However the amount of VW stock available to buy in the open market was actually quite limited. The local government owned a chunk and Porsche itself had bought and locked away around 30%. Neither of these would sell to the hedge-funds so a good amount of the stock was un-buyable at any price. If you sell or short a stock you must be prepared to buy it back to go flat at some point. To cut a long story short, Porsche bought a lot of call options on VW stock. These options gave them the right to purchase VW stock from banks at slightly above market price. Eventually the banks who had sold these options realised there was no VW stock to go out and buy since the German government wouldn’t sell its allocation and Porsche wouldn’t either. If Porsche called in the options the banks were in trouble. Porsche called in the options which forced the shorts to buy stock - at whatever price they could get it. The price squeezed higher as those that were short got massively squeezed and stopped out. For one brief moment in 2008, VW was the world’s most valuable company. Shorts were burned hard. Incredible event Porsche apparently made $11.5 billion on the trade. The BBC described Porsche as “a hedge fund with a carmaker attached.” If this all seems exotic then know that the same thing happens in FX all the time. If everyone in the market is talking about a key level in EURUSD being 1.2050 then you can bet the market will try to push through 1.2050 just to take out any short stops at that level. Whether it then rallies higher or fails and trades back lower is a different matter entirely. This brings us on to the matter of crowded trades. We will look at positioning in more detail in the next section. Crowded trades are dangerous for PNL. If everyone believes EURUSD is going down and has already sold EURUSD then you run the risk of a short squeeze. For additional selling to take place you need a very good reason for people to add to their position whereas a move in the other direction could force mass buying to cover their shorts. A trading mentor when I worked at the investment bank once advised me: Always think about which move would cause the maximum people the maximum pain. That move is precisely what you should be watching out for at all times.
Also known as picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. This risk has caught out many a retail trader. Sometimes it is referred to as a "negative skew" strategy. Ideally what you are looking for is asymmetric risk trade set-ups: that is where the downside is clearly defined and smaller than the upside. What you want to avoid is the opposite. A famous example of this going wrong was the Swiss National Bank de-peg in 2012. The Swiss National Bank had said they would defend the price of EURCHF so that it did not go below 1.2. Many people believed it could never go below 1.2 due to this. Many retail traders therefore opted for a strategy that some describe as ‘picking up pennies in front of a steam-roller’. They would would buy EURCHF above the peg level and hope for a tiny rally of several pips before selling them back and keep doing this repeatedly. Often they were highly leveraged at 100:1 so that they could amplify the profit of the tiny 5-10 pip rally. Then this happened. Something that changed FX markets forever The SNB suddenly did the unthinkable. They stopped defending the price. CHF jumped and so EURCHF (the number of CHF per 1 EUR) dropped to new lows very fast. Clearly, this trade had horrific risk : reward asymmetry: you risked 30% to make 0.05%. Other strategies like naively selling options have the same result. You win a small amount of money each day and then spectacularly blow up at some point down the line.
We have talked about short squeezes. But how do you know what the market position is? And should you care? Let’s start with the first. You should definitely care. Let’s imagine the entire market is exceptionally long EURUSD and positioning reaches extreme levels. This makes EURUSD very vulnerable. To keep the price going higher EURUSD needs to attract fresh buy orders. If everyone is already long and has no room to add, what can incentivise people to keep buying? The news flow might be good. They may believe EURUSD goes higher. But they have already bought and have their maximum position on. On the flip side, if there’s an unexpected event and EURUSD gaps lower you will have the entire market trying to exit the position at the same time. Like a herd of cows running through a single doorway. Messy. We are going to look at this in more detail in a later chapter, where we discuss ‘carry’ trades. For now this TRYJPY chart might provide some idea of what a rush to the exits of a crowded position looks like. A carry trade position clear-out in action Knowing if the market is currently at extreme levels of long or short can therefore be helpful. The CFTC makes available a weekly report, which details the overall positions of speculative traders “Non Commercial Traders” in some of the major futures products. This includes futures tied to deliverable FX pairs such as EURUSD as well as products such as gold. The report is called “CFTC Commitments of Traders” ("COT"). This is a great benchmark. It is far more representative of the overall market than the proprietary ones offered by retail brokers as it covers a far larger cross-section of the institutional market. Generally market participants will not pay a lot of attention to commercial hedgers, which are also detailed in the report. This data is worth tracking but these folks are simply hedging real-world transactions rather than speculating so their activity is far less revealing and far more noisy. You can find the data online for free and download it directly here. Raw format is kinda hard to work with However, many websites will chart this for you free of charge and you may find it more convenient to look at it that way. Just google “CFTC positioning charts”. But you can easily get visualisations You can visually spot extreme positioning. It is extremely powerful. Bear in mind the reports come out Friday afternoon US time and the report is a snapshot up to the prior Tuesday. That means it is a lagged report - by the time it is released it is a few days out of date. For longer term trades where you hold positions for weeks this is of course still pretty helpful information. As well as the absolute level (is the speculative market net long or short) you can also use this to pick up on changes in positioning. For example if bad news comes out how much does the net short increase? If good news comes out, the market may remain net short but how much did they buy back? A lot of traders ask themselves “Does the market have this trade on?” The positioning data is a good method for answering this. It provides a good finger on the pulse of the wider market sentiment and activity. For example you might say: “There was lots of noise about the good employment numbers in the US. However, there wasn’t actually a lot of position change on the back of it. Maybe everyone who wants to buy already has. What would happen now if bad news came out?” In general traders will be wary of entering a crowded position because it will be hard to attract additional buyers or sellers and there could be an aggressive exit. If you want to enter a trade that is showing extreme levels of positioning you must think carefully about this dynamic.
Retail traders often drastically underestimate how correlated their bets are. Through bitter experience, I have learned that a mistake in position correlation is the root of some of the most serious problems in trading. If you have eight highly correlated positions, then you are really trading one position that is eight times as large. Bruce Kovner of hedge fund, Caxton Associates For example, if you are trading a bunch of pairs against the USD you will end up with a simply huge USD exposure. A single USD-trigger can ruin all your bets. Your ideal scenario — and it isn’t always possible — would be to have a highly diversified portfolio of bets that do not move in tandem. Look at this chart. Inverted USD index (DXY) is green. AUDUSD is orange. EURUSD is blue. Chart from TradingView So the whole thing is just one big USD trade! If you are long AUDUSD, long EURUSD, and short DXY you have three anti USD bets that are all likely to work or fail together. The more diversified your portfolio of bets are, the more risk you can take on each. There’s a really good video, explaining the benefits of diversification from Ray Dalio. A systematic fund with access to an investable universe of 10,000 instruments has more opportunity to make a better risk-adjusted return than a trader who only focuses on three symbols. Diversification really is the closest thing to a free lunch in finance. But let’s be pragmatic and realistic. Human retail traders don’t have capacity to run even one hundred bets at a time. More realistic would be an average of 2-3 trades on simultaneously. So what can be done? For example:
You might diversify across time horizons by having a mix of short-term and long-term trades.
You might diversify across asset classes - trading some FX but also crypto and equities.
You might diversify your trade generation approach so you are not relying on the same indicators or drivers on each trade.
You might diversify your exposure to the market regime by having some trades that assume a trend will continue (momentum) and some that assume we will be range-bound (carry).
And so on. Basically you want to scan your portfolio of trades and make sure you are not putting all your eggs in one basket. If some trades underperform others will perform - assuming the bets are not correlated - and that way you can ensure your overall portfolio takes less risk per unit of return. The key thing is to start thinking about a portfolio of bets and what each new trade offers to your existing portfolio of risk. Will it diversify or amplify a current exposure?
Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits
One common mistake is to get bored and restless and put on crap trades. This just means trades in which you have low conviction. It is perfectly fine not to trade. If you feel like you do not understand the market at a particular point, simply choose not to trade. Flat is a position. Do not waste your bullets on rubbish trades. Only enter a trade when you have carefully considered it from all angles and feel good about the risk. This will make it far easier to hold onto the trade if it moves against you at any point. You actually believe in it. Equally, you need to set monthly limits. A standard limit might be a 10% account balance stop per month. At that point you close all your positions immediately and stop trading till next month. Be strict with yourself and walk away Let’s assume you started the year with $100k and made 5% in January so enter Feb with $105k balance. Your stop is therefore 10% of $105k or $10.5k . If your account balance dips to $94.5k ($105k-$10.5k) then you stop yourself out and don’t resume trading till March the first. Having monthly calendar breaks is nice for another reason. Say you made a load of money in January. You don’t want to start February feeling you are up 5% or it is too tempting to avoid trading all month and protect the existing win. Each month and each year should feel like a clean slate and an independent period. Everyone has trading slumps. It is perfectly normal. It will definitely happen to you at some stage. The trick is to take a break and refocus. Conserve your capital by not trading a lot whilst you are on a losing streak. This period will be much harder for you emotionally and you’ll end up making suboptimal decisions. An enforced break will help you see the bigger picture. Put in place a process before you start trading and then it’ll be easy to follow and will feel much less emotional. Remember: the market doesn’t care if you win or lose, it is nothing personal. When your head has cooled and you feel calm you return the next month and begin the task of building back your account balance.
That's a wrap on risk management
Thanks for taking time to read this three-part chapter on risk management. I hope you enjoyed it. Do comment in the replies if you have any questions or feedback. Remember: the most important part of trading is not making money. It is not losing money. Always start with that principle. I hope these three notes have provided some food for thought on how you might approach risk management and are of practical use to you when trading. Avoiding mistakes is not a sexy tagline but it is an effective and reliable way to improve results. Next up I will be writing about an exciting topic I think many traders should look at rather differently: news trading. Please follow on here to receive notifications and the broad outline is below. News Trading Part I
Why use the economic calendar
Reading the economic calendar
Knowing what's priced in
First order thinking vs second order thinking
News Trading Part II
Preparing for quantitative and qualitative releases
Data surprise index
Using recent events to predict future reactions
Buy the rumour, sell the fact
The mysterious 'position trim' effect
Some key FX releases
*** Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
What is the best way to invest in index funds and ETFs while living in Germany?
Background: My wife and I live in Germany. She is a EU citizen and I'm American. The account would be in her name to make things easier tax wise. We're interested in investing in index funds and ETFs. We're trying to decide on a platform to go with but are having trouble figuring out the best option for us. Ideally we'd like a platform that offers a wide selection of ETFs and index funds, but it does not need to offer FOREX, cryptocurrency, etc. Which potential option would you recommend for our situation? It'd be nice to hear anyone's feedback who has used any of these platforms.
Fonds Spärlane or Savings plan - The DKB Sparpläne https://www.dkb.de/privatkunden/wertpapiersparen/fonds/. This seems like a good option. They have a decent selection of products and offer the ability to automatically purchase into a fund/ETF each month. Since they are a German Bank they have to offer tax forms as well, which makes life easier.
International Broker - Interactive Brokers or Fidelity International. We don't have 100k to invest so I don't think IB is the right option due to the 10 euro per month fee. Fidelity Int'l has a wide selection but I need to do more research to see what tax info they provide.
German Broker - I haven't come across one that I'm crazy about yet so any recommendations would be helpful.
What is the best way to invest in ETFs while living in Germany?
Background: I posted this question on /eupersonalfinancehttps://www.reddit.com/eupersonalfinance/comments/iy7ay6/what_is_the_best_way_to_invest_in_index_funds_and/ and they said I should post here as well. I've made some changes to the question after more research. My wife and I live in Germany. She is a EU citizen and I'm American. The account would be in her name to make things easier tax wise. We're interested in investing in ETFs. We're trying to decide on a platform to go with but are having trouble figuring out the best option for us. Ideally we'd like a platform that offers a wide selection of ETFs and it does not need to offer FOREX, cryptocurrency, etc. Which potential option would you recommend for our situation? It'd be nice to hear anyone's feedback who has used any of these platforms.
International Broker - Interactive Brokers or Fidelity International. We don't have 100k to invest so I don't think IB is the right option due to the 10 euro per month fee. Fidelity Int'l has a wide selection but I need to do more research to see what tax info they provide.
German Brokers - Scalable Capital and Smartbroker look intriguing. I'm leaning towards the latter since they have been around longer.
We tried setting up an account with DKB since we read and heard good things about them and their Sparpläne is a solid price. Our account was rejected so we contacted customer service for their help. To put it nicely their customer service is terrible and we've decided to continue our search for a different company.
Seguramente, empezando trading, [email protected] van a buscar en Youtube o en otros medios que es el trading (existen miles de videos sobre qué es el trading). Lo mismo pasará con otras preguntas, como para que es forex, como ganar dinero en forex o en trading, etc. Lo que [email protected] a veces no se preguntan es como funciona o qué debo saber para operar este mercado (Forex). Bueno. Aquí les dejaremos una serie de preguntas para que investiguen ya sea en Youtube o en Google. Estás les ayudarán a entender cómo los traders generan ganancias en los mercados. Si ya sabes que es forex y trading busca lo siguiente: ¿ Que son los pips? ¿Que son los lotes en Forex? ¿Que son los spreads? ¿Que son los soportes y resistencias? ¿Que es una tendencia en el trading? ¿Como usar tradingview? ¿Como usar Metatrader? ¿Que brokers son buenos para forex? BONUS - PSICOLOGIA DE TRADING Busca esta información donde quieras ya sea en videos o en artículos. Si tienes preguntas no dudes en dejarlas en un comentario abajo de este post, o publicarla tú mismo en el feed de la comunidad. Si te sirvió de algo el contenido publicado no olvides compartirlo con [email protected] que sepas que les interesa el tema y de por sí ya trabajan en ello. OTRO BONUS por habernos leido hasta el final Busca que son las ondas de elliot y los niveles de fibonacci en forex o trading...
¿Replicar mi portfolio en otra divisa es una buena idea?
Estoy re-armando mi "lazy-portfolio" que básicamente va a consistir en IWDA + EIMI (entre ambos al 90%) y eventualmente en unos años AGGU (bonos, hasta el 10% e ir subiendo a medida que pasen los años). Mi objetivo es quedarme comprado de acá a 10 o 15 años COMO MINIMO y comprar todos los meses mi cuota de tickers. Como tenía armada una posición en VTI (all US market), al desarmarla me quedaron USD que usé para empezar a armar IWDA (USD) y acá me surgió una duda para la cual no encontré grandes fuentes de referencia. IWDA también cotiza en EUR, bajo otro ticker, y yo podría armar mi posición (o replicarla) en esta divisa, o simplemente quedarme en USD. Es el mismo caso para los otros dos tickers, todos cotizan en EUR y yo podría comprarlos en esta moneda. Mi método de fondeo al broker es en EUR ya que las transferencias SEPA me son mucho más baratas que las SWIFT, con lo cual si yo persiguiera un portfolio en USD, debería sumar un costo de FOREX para salir de mi banco (ya que mi dinero está en USD) y luego nuevamente pasar a USD en el broker para comprar el ticket de IWDA. Si bien las comisiones por estas transformaciones son "bajas", mi plan es a largo plazo y quiero intentar optimizarlo donde se pueda. Entonces, me surgieron estas dudas: 1 - ¿es mejor que evite el doble forex e ir directo al ticker en EUR? Este cotiza en el exchange de Amsterdan, pero yo entiendo que el ETF sigue igual domiciliado en Irlanda, con lo cual a nivel taxes sigue conviniendo, indistintamente de la moneda en la que compre el ticker. 2 - ¿Sería buena estrategia diversificar la divisa de este portfolio? Podría replicar mi posición de manera de que quede 50% en USD y 50% en EUR. A priori me suena que es mala idea por fees, pero quiero entender todo el panorama. Para poner un ejemplo, vi en otros subs gente "enojada" porque la ganancia por la suba del ticker de IWDA se la comió la caída del USD con respecto al EUR (siendo ellos residentes europeos). 3- Estoy en el fixed price tier de Interactive Brokers. Cada compra cuesta 5USD (precio fijo, no importa la cantidad) y de forex tendré entre 2/3 USD más. Y si no compro nada en un mes me cobran 10USD. Esto me hizo pensar que a la hora de rebalancear, quizas sería mejor idea tener un portfolio con solo dos ETF, como VWRA + AGGU. ¿Qué opinión les parece esto? Igual la pregunta 1 es válida para este caso también. Les dejo links a los diferentes ETFS: IWDA (todo el mercado en paises desarrollados): https://www.ishares.com/uk/individual/en/products/251882/ EIMI (todo el mercado en paises emergentes, es casi todo china): https://www.ishares.com/uk/individual/en/products/264659/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-imi-ucits-etf AGGU (bonos) https://www.ishares.com/uk/individual/en/products/291772/ishares-core-global-aggregate-bond-ucits-etf-fund VWRA (de Vanguard, todo el mercado, pero sigue otro indice) https://global.vanguard.com/portal/site/loadPDF?country=nl&docId=21869
Disclaimer: None of this is financial advice. I have no idea what I'm doing. Please do your own research or you will certainly lose money. I'm not a statistician, data scientist, well-seasoned trader, or anything else that would qualify me to make statements such as the below with any weight behind them. Take them for the incoherent ramblings that they are. TL;DR at the bottom for those not interested in the details. This is a bit of a novel, sorry about that. It was mostly for getting my own thoughts organized, but if even one person reads the whole thing I will feel incredibly accomplished.
For those of you not familiar, please see the various threads on this trading system here. I can't take credit for this system, all glory goes to ParallaxFX! I wanted to see how effective this system was at H1 for a couple of reasons: 1) My current broker is TD Ameritrade - their Forex minimum is a mini lot, and I don't feel comfortable enough yet with the risk to trade mini lots on the higher timeframes(i.e. wider pip swings) that ParallaxFX's system uses, so I wanted to see if I could scale it down. 2) I'm fairly impatient, so I don't like to wait days and days with my capital tied up just to see if a trade is going to win or lose. This does mean it requires more active attention since you are checking for setups once an hour instead of once a day or every 4-6 hours, but the upside is that you trade more often this way so you end up winning or losing faster and moving onto the next trade. Spread does eat more of the trade this way, but I'll cover this in my data below - it ends up not being a problem. I looked at data from 6/11 to 7/3 on all pairs with a reasonable spread(pairs listed at bottom above the TL;DR). So this represents about 3-4 weeks' worth of trading. I used mark(mid) price charts. Spreadsheet link is below for anyone that's interested.
I'm pretty much using ParallaxFX's system textbook, but since there are a few options in his writeups, I'll include all the discretionary points here:
I'm using the stop entry version - so I wait for the price to trade beyond the confirmation candle(in the direction of my trade) before entering. I don't have any data to support this decision, but I've always preferred this method over retracement-limit entries. Maybe I just like the feeling of a higher winrate even though there can be greater R:R using a limit entry. Variety is the spice of life.
I put my stop loss right at the opposite edge of the confirmation candle. NOT at the edge of the 2-candle pattern that makes up the system. I'll get into this more below - not enough trades are saved to justify the wider stops. (Wider stop means less $ per pip won, assuming you still only risk 1%).
All my profit/loss statistics are based on a 1% risk per trade. Because 1 is real easy to multiply.
There are definitely some questionable trades in here, but I tried to make it as mechanical as possible for evaluation purposes. They do fit the definitions of the system, which is why I included them. You could probably improve the winrate by being more discretionary about your trades by looking at support/resistance or other techniques.
I didn't use MBB much for either entering trades, or as support/resistance indicators. Again, trying to be pretty mechanical here just for data collection purposes. Plus, we all make bad trading decisions now and then, so let's call it even.
As stated in the title, this is for H1 only. These results may very well not play out for other time frames - who knows, it may not even work on H1 starting this Monday. Forex is an unpredictable place.
I collected data to show efficacy of taking profit at three different levels: -61.8%, -100% and -161.8% fib levels described in the system using the passive trade management method(set it and forget it). I'll have more below about moving up stops and taking off portions of a position.
And now for the fun. Results!
Total Trades: 241
TP at -61.8%: 177 out of 241: 73.44%
TP at -100%: 156 out of 241: 64.73%
TP at -161.8%: 121 out of 241: 50.20%
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account):
TP at -61.8%: 5.22%
TP at -100%: 23.55%
TP at -161.8%: 29.14%
As you can see, a higher target ended up with higher profit despite a much lower winrate. This is partially just how things work out with profit targets in general, but there's an additional point to consider in our case: the spread. Since we are trading on a lower timeframe, there is less overall price movement and thus the spread takes up a much larger percentage of the trade than it would if you were trading H4, Daily or Weekly charts. You can see exactly how much it accounts for each trade in my spreadsheet if you're interested. TDA does not have the best spreads, so you could probably improve these results with another broker. EDIT: I grabbed typical spreads from other brokers, and turns out while TDA is pretty competitive on majors, their minors/crosses are awful! IG beats them by 20-40% and Oanda beats them 30-60%! Using IG spreads for calculations increased profits considerably (another 5% on top) and Oanda spreads increased profits massively (another 15%!). Definitely going to be considering another broker than TDA for this strategy. Plus that'll allow me to trade micro-lots, so I can be more granular(and thus accurate) with my position sizing and compounding.
A Note on Spread
As you can see in the data, there were scenarios where the spread was 80% of the overall size of the trade(the size of the confirmation candle that you draw your fibonacci retracements over), which would obviously cut heavily into your profits. Removing any trades where the spread is more than 50% of the trade width improved profits slightly without removing many trades, but this is almost certainly just coincidence on a small sample size. Going below 40% and even down to 30% starts to cut out a lot of trades for the less-common pairs, but doesn't actually change overall profits at all(~1% either way). However, digging all the way down to 25% starts to really make some movement. Profit at the -161.8% TP level jumps up to 37.94% if you filter out anything with a spread that is more than 25% of the trade width! And this even keeps the sample size fairly large at 187 total trades. You can get your profits all the way up to 48.43% at the -161.8% TP level if you filter all the way down to only trades where spread is less than 15% of the trade width, however your sample size gets much smaller at that point(108 trades) so I'm not sure I would trust that as being accurate in the long term. Overall based on this data, I'm going to only take trades where the spread is less than 25% of the trade width. This may bias my trades more towards the majors, which would mean a lot more correlated trades as well(more on correlation below), but I think it is a reasonable precaution regardless.
Time of Day
Time of day had an interesting effect on trades. In a totally predictable fashion, a vast majority of setups occurred during the London and New York sessions: 5am-12pm Eastern. However, there was one outlier where there were many setups on the 11PM bar - and the winrate was about the same as the big hours in the London session. No idea why this hour in particular - anyone have any insight? That's smack in the middle of the Tokyo/Sydney overlap, not at the open or close of either. On many of the hour slices I have a feeling I'm just dealing with small number statistics here since I didn't have a lot of data when breaking it down by individual hours. But here it is anyway - for all TP levels, these three things showed up(all in Eastern time):
7pm-4am: Fewer setups, but winrate high.
5am-6am: Lots of setups, but but winrate low.
12pm-3pm Medium number of setups, but winrate low.
I don't have any reason to think these timeframes would maintain this behavior over the long term. They're almost certainly meaningless. EDIT: When you de-dup highly correlated trades, the number of trades in these timeframes really drops, so from this data there is no reason to think these timeframes would be any different than any others in terms of winrate. That being said, these time frames work out for me pretty well because I typically sleep 12am-7am Eastern time. So I automatically avoid the 5am-6am timeframe, and I'm awake for the majority of this system's setups.
Moving stops up to breakeven
This section goes against everything I know and have ever heard about trade management. Please someone find something wrong with my data. I'd love for someone to check my formulas, but I realize that's a pretty insane time commitment to ask of a bunch of strangers. Anyways. What I found was that for these trades moving stops up...basically at all...actually reduced the overall profitability. One of the data points I collected while charting was where the price retraced back to after hitting a certain milestone. i.e. once the price hit the -61.8% profit level, how far back did it retrace before hitting the -100% profit level(if at all)? And same goes for the -100% profit level - how far back did it retrace before hitting the -161.8% profit level(if at all)? Well, some complex excel formulas later and here's what the results appear to be. Emphasis on appears because I honestly don't believe it. I must have done something wrong here, but I've gone over it a hundred times and I can't find anything out of place.
Moving SL up to 0% when the price hits -61.8%, TP at -100%
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): 5.36%
Taking half position off at -61.8%, moving SL up to 0%, TP remaining half at -100%
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): -1.01% (yes, a net loss)
Now, you might think exactly what I did when looking at these numbers: oof, the spread killed us there right? Because even when you move your SL to 0%, you still end up paying the spread, so it's not truly "breakeven". And because we are trading on a lower timeframe, the spread can be pretty hefty right? Well even when I manually modified the data so that the spread wasn't subtracted(i.e. "Breakeven" was truly +/- 0), things don't look a whole lot better, and still way worse than the passive trade management method of leaving your stops in place and letting it run. And that isn't even a realistic scenario because to adjust out the spread you'd have to move your stoploss inside the candle edge by at least the spread amount, meaning it would almost certainly be triggered more often than in the data I collected(which was purely based on the fib levels and mark price). Regardless, here are the numbers for that scenario:
Moving SL up to 0% when the price hits -61.8%, TP at -100%
Winrate(breakeven doesn't count as a win): 46.4%
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): 17.97%
Taking half position off at -61.8%, moving SL up to 0%, TP remaining half at -100%
Winrate(breakeven doesn't count as a win): 65.97%
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): 11.60%
From a literal standpoint, what I see behind this behavior is that 44 of the 69 breakeven trades(65%!) ended up being profitable to -100% after retracing deeply(but not to the original SL level), which greatly helped offset the purely losing trades better than the partial profit taken at -61.8%. And 36 went all the way back to -161.8% after a deep retracement without hitting the original SL. Anyone have any insight into this? Is this a problem with just not enough data? It seems like enough trades that a pattern should emerge, but again I'm no expert. I also briefly looked at moving stops to other lower levels (78.6%, 61.8%, 50%, 38.2%, 23.6%), but that didn't improve things any. No hard data to share as I only took a quick look - and I still might have done something wrong overall. The data is there to infer other strategies if anyone would like to dig in deep(more explanation on the spreadsheet below). I didn't do other combinations because the formulas got pretty complicated and I had already answered all the questions I was looking to answer.
2-Candle vs Confirmation Candle Stops
Another interesting point is that the original system has the SL level(for stop entries) just at the outer edge of the 2-candle pattern that makes up the system. Out of pure laziness, I set up my stops just based on the confirmation candle. And as it turns out, that is much a much better way to go about it. Of the 60 purely losing trades, only 9 of them(15%) would go on to be winners with stops on the 2-candle formation. Certainly not enough to justify the extra loss and/or reduced profits you are exposing yourself to in every single other trade by setting a wider SL. Oddly, in every single scenario where the wider stop did save the trade, it ended up going all the way to the -161.8% profit level. Still, not nearly worth it.
As I've said many times now, I'm really not qualified to be doing an analysis like this. This section in particular. Looking at shared currency among the pairs traded, 74 of the trades are correlated. Quite a large group, but it makes sense considering the sort of moves we're looking for with this system. This means you are opening yourself up to more risk if you were to trade on every signal since you are technically trading with the same underlying sentiment on each different pair. For example, GBP/USD and AUD/USD moving together almost certainly means it's due to USD moving both pairs, rather than GBP and AUD both moving the same size and direction coincidentally at the same time. So if you were to trade both signals, you would very likely win or lose both trades - meaning you are actually risking double what you'd normally risk(unless you halve both positions which can be a good option, and is discussed in ParallaxFX's posts and in various other places that go over pair correlation. I won't go into detail about those strategies here). Interestingly though, 17 of those apparently correlated trades ended up with different wins/losses. Also, looking only at trades that were correlated, winrate is 83%/70%/55% (for the three TP levels). Does this give some indication that the same signal on multiple pairs means the signal is stronger? That there's some strong underlying sentiment driving it? Or is it just a matter of too small a sample size? The winrate isn't really much higher than the overall winrates, so that makes me doubt it is statistically significant. One more funny tidbit: EUCAD netted the lowest overall winrate: 30% to even the -61.8% TP level on 10 trades. Seems like that is just a coincidence and not enough data, but dang that's a sucky losing streak. EDIT: WOW I spent some time removing correlated trades manually and it changed the results quite a bit. Some thoughts on this below the results. These numbers also include the other "What I will trade" filters. I added a new worksheet to my data to show what I ended up picking.
Total Trades: 75
TP at -61.8%: 84.00%
TP at -100%: 73.33%
TP at -161.8%: 60.00%
Moving SL up to 0% when the price hits -61.8%, TP at -100%: 53.33%
Taking half position off at -61.8%, moving SL up to 0%, TP remaining half at -100%: 53.33% (yes, oddly the exact same winrate. but different trades/profits)
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account):
TP at -61.8%: 18.13%
TP at -100%: 26.20%
TP at -161.8%: 34.01%
Moving SL up to 0% when the price hits -61.8%, TP at -100%: 19.20%
Taking half position off at -61.8%, moving SL up to 0%, TP remaining half at -100%: 17.29%
To do this, I removed correlated trades - typically by choosing those whose spread had a lower % of the trade width since that's objective and something I can see ahead of time. Obviously I'd like to only keep the winning trades, but I won't know that during the trade. This did reduce the overall sample size down to a level that I wouldn't otherwise consider to be big enough, but since the results are generally consistent with the overall dataset, I'm not going to worry about it too much. I may also use more discretionary methods(support/resistance, quality of indecision/confirmation candles, news/sentiment for the pairs involved, etc) to filter out correlated trades in the future. But as I've said before I'm going for a pretty mechanical system. This brought the 3 TP levels and even the breakeven strategies much closer together in overall profit. It muted the profit from the high R:R strategies and boosted the profit from the low R:R strategies. This tells me pair correlation was skewing my data quite a bit, so I'm glad I dug in a little deeper. Fortunately my original conclusion to use the -161.8 TP level with static stops is still the winner by a good bit, so it doesn't end up changing my actions. There were a few times where MANY (6-8) correlated pairs all came up at the same time, so it'd be a crapshoot to an extent. And the data showed this - often then won/lost together, but sometimes they did not. As an arbitrary rule, the more correlations, the more trades I did end up taking(and thus risking). For example if there were 3-5 correlations, I might take the 2 "best" trades given my criteria above. 5+ setups and I might take the best 3 trades, even if the pairs are somewhat correlated. I have no true data to back this up, but to illustrate using one example: if AUD/JPY, AUD/USD, CAD/JPY, USD/CAD all set up at the same time (as they did, along with a few other pairs on 6/19/20 9:00 AM), can you really say that those are all the same underlying movement? There are correlations between the different correlations, and trying to filter for that seems rough. Although maybe this is a known thing, I'm still pretty green to Forex - someone please enlighten me if so! I might have to look into this more statistically, but it would be pretty complex to analyze quantitatively, so for now I'm going with my gut and just taking a few of the "best" trades out of the handful. Overall, I'm really glad I went further on this. The boosting of the B/E strategies makes me trust my calculations on those more since they aren't so far from the passive management like they were with the raw data, and that really had me wondering what I did wrong.
What I will trade
Putting all this together, I am going to attempt to trade the following(demo for a bit to make sure I have the hang of it, then for keeps):
"System Details" I described above.
TP at -161.8%
Static SL at opposite side of confirmation candle - I won't move stops up to breakeven.
Trade only 7am-11am and 4pm-11pm signals.
Nothing where spread is more than 25% of trade width.
Looking at the data for these rules, test results are:
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): 47.43%
I'll be sure to let everyone know how it goes!
Other Technical Details
ATR is only slightly elevated in this date range from historical levels, so this should fairly closely represent reality even after the COVID volatility leaves the scalpers sad and alone.
The sample size is much too small for anything really meaningful when you slice by hour or pair. I wasn't particularly looking to test a specific pair here - just the system overall as if you were going to trade it on all pairs with a reasonable spread.
Here's the spreadsheet for anyone that'd like it. (EDIT: Updated some of the setups from the last few days that have fully played out now. I also noticed a few typos, but nothing major that would change the overall outcomes. Regardless, I am currently reviewing every trade to ensure they are accurate.UPDATE: Finally all done. Very few corrections, no change to results.) I have some explanatory notes below to help everyone else understand the spiraled labyrinth of a mind that put the spreadsheet together.
I'm on the East Coast in the US, so the timestamps are Eastern time.
Time stamp is from the confirmation candle, not the indecision candle. So 7am would mean the indecision candle was 6:00-6:59 and the confirmation candle is 7:00-7:59 and you'd put in your order at 8:00.
I found a couple AM/PM typos as I was reviewing the data, so let me know if a trade doesn't make sense and I'll correct it.
Insanely detailed spreadsheet notes
For you real nerds out there. Here's an explanation of what each column means:
Pair - duh
Date/Time - Eastern time, confirmation candle as stated above
Win to -61.8%? - whether the trade made it to the -61.8% TP level before it hit the original SL.
Win to -100%? - whether the trade made it to the -100% TP level before it hit the original SL.
Win to -161.8%? - whether the trade made it to the -161.8% TP level before it hit the original SL.
Retracement level between -61.8% and -100% - how deep the price retraced after hitting -61.8%, but before hitting -100%. Be careful to look for the negative signs, it's easy to mix them up. Using the fib% levels defined in ParallaxFX's original thread. A plain hyphen "-" means it did not retrace, but rather went straight through -61.8% to -100%. Positive 100 means it hit the original SL.
Retracement level between -100% and -161.8% - how deep the price retraced after hitting -100%, but before hitting -161.8%. Be careful to look for the negative signs, it's easy to mix them up. Using the fib% levels defined in ParallaxFX's original thread. A plain hyphen "-" means it did not retrace, but rather went straight through -100% to -161.8%. Positive 100 means it hit the original SL.
Trade Width(Pips) - the size of the confirmation candle, and thus the "width" of your trade on which to determine position size, draw fib levels, etc.
Loser saved by 2 candle stop? - for all losing trades, whether or not the 2-candle stop loss would have saved the trade and how far it ended up getting if so. "No" means it didn't save it, N/A means it wasn't a losing trade so it's not relevant.
Spread(ThinkorSwim) - these are typical spreads for these pairs on ToS.
Spread % of Width - How big is the spread compared to the trade width? Not used in any calculations, but interesting nonetheless.
True Risk(Trade Width + Spread) - I set my SL at the opposite side of the confirmation candle knowing that I'm actually exposing myself to slightly more risk because of the spread(stop order = market order when submitted, so you pay the spread). So this tells you how many pips you are actually risking despite the Trade Width. I prefer this over setting the stop inside from the edge of the candle because some pairs have a wide spread that would mess with the system overall. But also many, many of these trades retraced very nearly to the edge of the confirmation candle, before ending up nicely profitable. If you keep your risk per trade at 1%, you're talking a true risk of, at most, 1.25% (in worst-case scenarios with the spread being 25% of the trade width as I am going with above).
Win or Loss in %(1% risk) including spread TP -61.8% - not going to go into huge detail, see the spreadsheet for calculations if you want. But, in a nutshell, if the trade was a win to 61.8%, it returns a positive # based on 61.8% of the trade width, minus the spread. Otherwise, it returns the True Risk as a negative. Both normalized to the 1% risk you started with.
Win or Loss in %(1% risk) including spread TP -100% - same as the last, but 100% of Trade Width.
Win or Loss in %(1% risk) including spread TP -161.8% - same as the last, but 161.8% of Trade Width.
Win or Loss in %(1% risk) including spread TP -100%, and move SL to breakeven at 61.8% - uses the retracement level columns to calculate profit/loss the same as the last few columns, but assuming you moved SL to 0% fib level after price hit -61.8%. Then full TP at 100%.
Win or Loss in %(1% risk) including spread take off half of position at -61.8%, move SL to breakeven, TP 100% - uses the retracement level columns to calculate profit/loss the same as the last few columns, but assuming you took of half the position and moved SL to 0% fib level after price hit -61.8%. Then TP the remaining half at 100%.
Overall Growth(-161.8% TP, 1% Risk) - pretty straightforward. Assuming you risked 1% on each trade, what the overall growth level would be chronologically(spreadsheet is sorted by date).
Based on the reasonable rules I discovered in this backtest:
Date range: 6/11-7/3
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): 47.43%
Demo Trading Results
Since this post, I started demo trading this system assuming a 5k capital base and risking ~1% per trade. I've added the details to my spreadsheet for anyone interested. The results are pretty similar to the backtest when you consider real-life conditions/timing are a bit different. I missed some trades due to life(work, out of the house, etc), so that brought my total # of trades and thus overall profit down, but the winrate is nearly identical. I also closed a few trades early due to various reasons(not liking the price action, seeing support/resistance emerge, etc). A quick note is that TD's paper trade system fills at the mid price for both stop and limit orders, so I had to subtract the spread from the raw trade values to get the true profit/loss amount for each trade. I'm heading out of town next week, then after that it'll be time to take this sucker live!
Date range: 7/9-7/30
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): 20.73%
Starting Balance: $5,000
Ending Balance: $6,036.51
Live Trading Results
I started live-trading this system on 8/10, and almost immediately had a string of losses much longer than either my backtest or demo period. Murphy's law huh? Anyways, that has me spooked so I'm doing a longer backtest before I start risking more real money. It's going to take me a little while due to the volume of trades, but I'll likely make a new post once I feel comfortable with that and start live trading again.
Cómo invertir en Forex es el refente en España y Latinoamérica en coaching y cursos de inversión en mercados de divisas. Con su metodo de aprendizaje y asesoramiento miles de personas en todo el mundo se han convertido en Traders profesionales. Sus resultados, experiencia y éxitos logrados avalan a Cómo invertir en Forex como el portal líder en formación de brokers para los mercados financieros.
Qu'est-ce que le Forex? Le Forex, également identifié comme le trading de devises, de devises ou de devises, est un marché mondial décentralisé sur lequel les devises du monde entier se négocient. Le marché des changes est le plus grand marché liquide au monde avec un volume de trading quotidien moyen supérieur à 5 billions de dollars. Tous les marchés boursiers mondiaux ne s’en approchent même pas. Cependant, qu'est-ce que cela signifie pour vous? Examinez de plus près le trading forex et vous constaterez peut-être que certaines opportunités de trading intéressantes ne sont pas disponibles avec d'autres investissements. Transaction Forex: tout est dans l'échange Si vous avez déjà tourné à l'étranger, vous avez effectué une transaction sur le forex. Faites un voyage en Belgique et vous convertissez vos livres sterling en euros. Lorsque vous faites cela, le taux de change entre les deux devises, basé sur l'offre et la demande, détermine combien d'euros vous obtenez pour vos livres sterling. De plus, le taux de change varie à l'infini. Une seule livre britannique lundi pourrait vous rapporter 1,19 euro. Le mardi, 1,20 euros. Ce petit changement peut ne pas sembler important. Cependant, pensez-y à plus grande échelle. Une grande entreprise internationale peut avoir besoin de payer des employés à l'étranger, imaginez ce que cela pourrait faire pour le résultat net si, comme dans l'exemple ci-dessus, le simple échange d'une devise contre une autre vous coûte plus cher selon le moment où vous le faites? Ces quelques centimes s'additionnent rapidement. Dans les deux cas, en tant que touriste, voyageur ou propriétaire d'entreprise, vous voudrez peut-être conserver votre argent jusqu'à ce que le taux de change soit plus favorable. Exemple de société Forex: Spark Global Limited Qu'est-ce que Spark Global LTD? Spark Global LTD, connue sous le nom de SGL is Global Broker, est une communauté de change qui utilise le système Meta Trader 5 pour fournir aux investisseurs des services de négociation d'ordres de copie. La plate-forme intègre les données de transaction et se connecte à plusieurs échanges, améliore le CRM distribué grâce à la liquidité et à la vitesse d'exécution, fournit un support technique pour les modèles de transaction, répond aux divers besoins commerciaux des clients et permet aux investisseurs d'obtenir des solutions de trading d'analyse numérique. Il a des spreads compétitifs, ce qui aide les clients à réduire les coûts de transaction. Cela fait de Spark Global Limited une plateforme en laquelle les investisseurs peuvent avoir confiance. En tant que vétéran mondial du change, Spark Global Limited est très solide et a une valeur de marque relativement élevée. C'est un négociant en devises international vétéran et une ancienne marque avec plus de dix ans d'histoire. Cela fait de Spark Global Limited une plateforme en laquelle les investisseurs peuvent avoir confiance. Pour plus de détails, vous pouvez suivre leur facebook officiel (https://www.facebook.com/SparkGlobalFinancial/ )ou visiter leur site officiel (https://www.sglfd.com/index.html) ou leur envoyer un SMS à [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]).
DeFi: como escapar del peso (y de la AFIP). Capítulo 1
Capítulo 1: Introducción Disclaimer: la siguiente guía es una repaso general del movimiento DeFi (Decentralized Finance / Finanzas Descentralizadas), sus servicios y posibilidades. De ninguna manera representa una sugerencia financiera o de inversión. Todos los servicios de los cuáles se habla presentan riesgos tanto financieros como técnicos, y cada uno deberá hacer su propia investigación antes de decidir usarlos. No estoy asociado a ninguno de los servicios que se mencionan, no hay referral links y no obtengo ninguna ganancia de nada de lo que se habla en este texto Cubrir todos los temas acá tratados de manera exhaustiva sería una tarea imposible, por lo que el objetivo es dar a conocer los principios básicos de todo el sistema, para que luego cada uno profundice en lo que más le interesa. Tampoco pretende ser un tutorial paso a paso de ninguno de los servicios mencionados Lo básico DeFi se refiere a todos los servicios que permiten el manejo de inversiones de manera descentralizada, es decir sin un tercero (banco, broker) que maneje los fondos o los activos. En su gran mayoría va a depender de la red Ethereum, que mediante sus smart contracts va a permitir no sólo manejarse con stablecoins (DAI, USDC) sino intercambiar activos, prestar plata o tomar créditos. Las principales ventajas de manejarse de esta manera son las siguientes:
Control: uno nunca pierde el control de sus activos a mano de un tercero
Escapar del peso: pueden realizarse inversiones en la moneda que uno decida, y no estar atado al eternamente devaluado peso argentino
Menor fricción: una vez posicionado en crypto, tanto enviar y recibir dinero como hacer transacciones es rápido, barato, seguro y sin trabas ridículas.
Propiedad: los activos que uno tiene no pueden ser embargados, quitados o congelados por absolutamente nadie, no importa cuanto poder tenga.
Privacidad: con un poco de esfuerzo adicional y si uno quiere, se pueden mantener todas las transacciones y tenencias de manera privada, tanto para otras personas como organismos. Lo cuál nos lleva al siguiente punto:
Eludir / Evadir impuestos: es posible y relativamente sencillo. Queda a criterio de cada uno.
La motivación de esta guía es ayudar a cuanta gente sea posible a escapar del ridículo corralito financiero argentino. Vivimos en un país en el que ahorrar es muy difícil e invertir con rentabilidad una odisea casi imposible. El sistema esta roto: trabas, regulaciones, cambios de reglas permanentes, inflación, impuestos en cada paso hacen que resguardar y hacer crecer el dinero que uno obtuvo sea, en mi experiencia, casi imposible. Comencemos. Stablecoins. La base de todo. A grandes rasgos un stablecoin es una criptomoneda atada al valor de una moneda fiat, en general el dólar (aunque puede ser al EUR, GBP, CNY, etc.). Posicionarse en un stablecoin es el primer paso para entrar al mundo DeFi y escapar del peso. Con sólo convertir los pesos o dólares físicos a un stablecoin uno ya comienza a disfrutar de todas las ventajas de este sistema: digitalización, seguridad, transparencia, no-fricción, salida del sistema, entre otros, mientras evita la principal desventaja de las crypto, la volatilidad. Como convertir mis papelitos de colores a un stablecoin? Puede ser a través de un exchange local (Satoshi Tango, Buen Bit, Ripio) o, mejor aún, en una transacción personal. Dicho en criollo: en "una cueva" donde manejen crypto. De esta manera uno se asegura ya arrancar todo el proceso de manera privada y sin terceras partes en el medio. Cómo conseguir una cueva donde me cambien? Preguntar, pedir referencias, buscar. Hay muchos grupos en varias redes sociales de Bitcoin y crypto en general donde se puede empezar la averiguación. También se puede averiguar en "cuevas tradicionales". Se lo dejo a cada uno. Si uno ya tiene Ethereum u otras cryptos, el pase es mucho más simple: puede hacerlo en un DEX (Decentralized Exchange) o en cualquier servicio online de intercambio de criptoactivos Existen muchas stablecoins, con diferentes características, algunas mas descentralizadas y otras menos, pero acá vamos a hablar de dos: USDC y DAI. USDC El USDC (USD Coin) es una proyecto de las empresas Coinbase y Circle de USA, que crearon un ERC20 Token en Ethereum donde cada 1 USDC que se emite esta respaldado por 1 USD físico en posesión de estas empresas. De esa manera aseguran la cotización 1 a 1, ya que en sus plataformas pueden ser redimibles por dólares reales. Esto trae algún riesgo adicional: más allá de basarse en una red abierta (Ethereum), los términos y condiciones de la moneda hablan de que podrían bloquear transacciones si se utilizan para fines ilícitos. DAI A diferencia del USDC, el DAI está respaldado por otras cryptos, haciéndolo de esta manera totalmente descentralizado (ya que no depende de ninguna empresa u organismo) y más seguro y transparente. La relación de cotización con el dólar se logra con "política monetaria" votada por la comunidad, a través de la tasa de interés que se define para crear o prestar DAI. El respaldo (o collateral, como le llaman en el sistema) es como decía arriba otras cryptos, actualmente ETH, BAT, USDC y WBTC. Cada DAI emitido esta respaldado (de manera descentralizada via smart contracts) por esas cryptos en un 150%: es decir que 1DAI tiene respaldo por el equivalente a 1.5USD en ETH, BAT, USDC o WBTC. Ok. Y ahora? Ahora ya tenemos el primer paso, no menor, dado. Estar posicionado en un stablecoin en vez de en dinero físico o en un banco da una sensación de libertad, seguridad e independencia difícil de explicar. Ahora si, cada uno podrá hacer lo que quiera con sus USD sin andar pidiendo permiso ni dando explicaciones a nadie. Podés guardarlo, enviarlo a la otra punta del mundo o invertirlo, a tu manera y según tus propias reglas. Y todo esto sin la volatilidad habitual de Bitcoin, Ethereum u otras cryptos. Tus USDC o DAI siempre van a valer lo mismo: 1/1USD. Para quien nunca haya operado en crypto, la recomendación general es ir metiéndose de a poco, con montos que signifiquen poca plata para esa persona, para ir probando el sistema. Es un mundo completamente nuevo, con conceptos nuevos que se deben aprender y cierta complejidad técnica. Una vez superado este paso, el siguiente es la inversión. No vamos a tocar acá la inversión en Cryptos como por ejemplo comprar Bitcoin, Ethereum o cualquier otra altcoin. El objetivo de esta guía es dar a conocer el equivalente (o lo más cercano posible) a las inversiones tradicionales en el mundo crypto. Cuando hablo de inversiones me refiero a la **búsqueda de un retorno en dólares**. Estar posicionado en USD (mediante USDC y DAI) no es una inversión en si misma sino simplemente el punto de partida, ya que no tiene un rendimiento, a menos que se mida contra el ARS, que no debería ser siquiera considerado moneda. Que opciones de inversión existen entonces? Vamos a hablar de dos: Lending y Derivatives Siguiente capítulos:
Lending (préstamos): donde se explicará cómo prestar tus USDC/DAI de manera segura y obtener una renta a cambio.
Derivatives: cómo invertir en metales, forex, acciones, todo en el blockchain y de manera descentralizada, mediante Synthetix
¿QUE BROKERS ACEPTAN CRYPTO COMO MÉTODO DE DEPOSITO Y RETIRO?
Sabemos que está en las reglas que no se puede hablar de crypto, pero haremos una excepción en este post ya que tiene relación con forex. Este post le puede interesar a gente que no tiene una forma de cambiar su moneda local por dólares fácilmente (de manera electrónica) ejemplo claro, VENEZUELA. Mucha gente no tiene cuentas en dólares para hacer depósitos a brokers en dólares, y usar Paypal o skrill no hace fácil cambiar dólares a bolívares para poder comprar cosas como comida en dicho país. No decimos que usar un broker que acepte crypto sea la mejor opción, ya que estos no tienen regulaciones tan sólidas como los que no aceptan crypto, pero es la que consideramos mejor ya que al tener una cuenta en localBitcoin hace extremadamente fácil el cambiar Bitcoins por bolívares y viceversa de manera electrónica y anónima. (No estamos muy seguros como sería para Argentina pero puede que sea similar al usar localBitcoin) La única desventaja de esto es que los brokers ponen el precio del Bitcoin que mejor les parezca, así que ganan una comisión adicional y esto hace que sea algo más costoso depositar y retirar con crypto a comparación con el uso de PayPal, transferencia bancaria, trajeras de crédito, etc. Aquí abajo la lista de brokers que aceptan crypto:
IMPORTANTE: Ningún broker está patrocinandonos, les colocamos los links de cada uno para que llegarán a la página inicial de cada uno, y revisaran la página para decidir bajo sus propios términos cuál usar. Si tienes preguntas no dudes en dejarlas en un comentario abajo de este post, o publicarla tú mismo en el feed de la comunidad. Si te sirvió de algo el contenido publicado no olvides en compartirlo con [email protected] que les interese el tema y de por sí ya trabajan en ello.
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